New crime prediction software should reduce not only the murder rate, but the rate of othe

New crime prediction software should reduce not only the murder rate, but the rate of other crimes. Developed by Richard Berk, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, the software has already used in Baltimore and Philadelphia to predict which individuals on probation(缓刑) or parole(假释) are most likely to murder and to be murdered.
“When a person goes on probation or parole he is supervised(监督) by an officer. The question is ‘what level of supervision is appropriate?’” said Berk. It used to be that parole officers used the person’s criminal record, and their judgment to make decisions.
“This research replaces those seat-of-the –pants calculations,” he said.
Technology helps determine level of supervision. On average there is one murder for every 100,000 people. Even among high-risk groups the murder rate is one in 100. Predicting such a rare event is very difficult, but advances in computer technology works.
Years ago, the researchers made a dataset of more than 60,000 various crimes. Using the software they developed, they found some much more likely to commit murder when paroled or probated. They could identify eight future murderers out of 100.
Berk’s software examines roughly two dozen variables(可变因素), from criminal record to geographic location. The type of crimes, and more importantly, the age at which that crime was committed, were two of the most predictive variables.
“People assume that if someone murdered then they will murder in the future,” said Berk. “ What really matters is what that person did as a young individual. Predicting future crimes sounds well. But we aren’t anywhere near being able to do that.”
“Berk’s scientific answer leaves policymakers with difficult questions. By labeling one group of people as high risk, and supervise them closely, there should be fewer murders, which the potential victims should be happy about. It also means that those high-risk individuals will be supervised more aggressively. For human rights advocates, that means punishing people who, most likely, will not commit a crime in the future,” said Bushway. “It comes down to a question of whether you would rather make these errors or those errors.”
【小题1】The underlined words(in Para.3) probably mean . A．calculations based on subjective opinionsB．calculations based on widespread votingC．calculations made by advanced technologyD．calculations based on serious considering【小题2】For 650 people with crime records, how many potential murderers would the software find?A．6.5.B．13.C．52.D．65.【小题3】From Para 7, we can infer that .A．the technology developed by Richard Berk will soon be widely used in the USB．the technology would not be widely accepted in the short termC．whether a person murders or not largely decided by his upbringing while youngD．if a person murdered when he was fifty, he is sure to murder again while on probation【小题4】Bushway’s attitude to the technology put forward by Richard Berk is .A．positiveB．negativeC．objectiveD．indifferent【小题5】Which would be the best title for the passage?A．Closely Supervise Potential MurdersB．Measures Taken to Prevent Criminal BehaviorC．Technology Revolutionizes Judges’ Way of WorkingD．Software is Developed to Predict Criminal BehaviorA

(答案→)A 解析：文章全篇介绍了预测犯罪行为软件的开发是把双刃剑，虽然可以提高对高危人群发生犯罪行为预测的精准度，预防犯罪行为发生，但也会给那些不会再发生犯罪行为的人带来不必要的实时监控，使他们的权益受到损害。【小题1】推理题：划线部分“seat-of-the –pants calculations”可用上一段中“It used to be that parole officers used the person’s criminal record, and their judgment to make decisions”解释，指的是过去假释官根据一个人的犯罪记录和自己的判断来做决定，可知假释官的主观因素很大。A项符合原句意。故选A。【小题2】细节题：根据文章第四段中“They could identify eight future murderers out of 100”他们将来可以确定100个人中有8个杀人犯，因此650个人中会有52个罪犯。故选C。【小题3】推理题： 根据第七段最后一句“ But we aren’t anywhere near being able to do that.”但我们现在还做不到，可知这项技术短时间内还不能被广泛接受。故选B。【小题4】推理题：根据最后一段内容可知对高危人群的监控虽然会让潜在的受害者高兴，但也会对那些将来不会在犯罪的人是一种不必要的惩罚。由此可知他的观点比较客观。故选C。【小题5】主旨题：阅读全文可知是在讨论预测犯罪行为软件的开发。故选D

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